Research:Scribe

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Probability of successful scribing

Observations:

spell mindSpace paper                          paperL paperW bonus success failure
IRV   5         "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   60      29
ASB   5         "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   140     104
ASB   5         "order slip"                   6      4      326   47      0
BHEE  5         "small cigarette paper"        2      1      400   100     27
FHE   10        "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12     9      170   45      1
FHE   10        "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12     9      171   80      1
TMC   10        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      326   0       209
TMC   10        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      340   0       323
TMC   10        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      354   7       70
TMC   10        "order slip"                   6      4      326   53      0
BOA   10        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   68      49
BOA   10        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      412   60      16
OTF   15        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      407   60      21
FCI   15        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      407   10      2
FCI   15        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      408   45      16
JPCT  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   132     77
JPCT  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      399   6       2
JPCT  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      400   234     96
JPCT  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      408   120     27
JPCT  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      412   227     54
JPCT  20        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      386   60      32
JPCT  20        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      386   20      13
JPCT  20        "official employment writ"     12     9      411   20      0
DTLD  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      2      411   60      15
WMS   25        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      382   160     118
WMS   25        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   90      62
WMS   25        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      396   100     42
WMS   25        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      408   140     28
WMS   25        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      409   26      8
WMS   25        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      411   210     63
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      340   0       200
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      354   30      191
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      368   120     172
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      382   120     74
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      386   102     81
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      396   80      35
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      408   40      7
WMS   25        "large cigarette paper"        4      1      409   280     66
WMS   25        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      386   103     42
WMS   25        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      354   6       51
WMS   25        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      382   75      51
WMS   25        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      326   0       64
WMS   25        "piece of writing paper"       2      2      340   0       128
WMS   25        "order slip"                   6      4      340   0       60
WMS   25        "order slip"                   6      4      354   2       28
WMS   25        "order slip"                   6      4      368   10      20
WMS   25        "order slip"                   6      4      382   13      17
WMS   25        "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12     9      171   34      8
WMS   25        "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12     9      326   34      0
HEB   30        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   220     154
GRG   40        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      386   80      58
CMS2  60        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      412   10      4
# Squishii's observations, approximate
JPCT  20        "small cigarette paper"        2      1      273   0       200

R code:

scribing <- read.table("observations.txt", header=TRUE)
scribing$successRate <- scribing$success / (scribing$success + scribing$failure)
scribing$weight <- scribing$success + scribing$failure
scribing$paperArea <- scribing$paperL * scribing$paperW
model <- glm(formula = successRate ~ bonus + mindSpace +
                 paperArea,
             family = binomial,
             data = scribing,
             weights = weight)
summary(model)

Based on that, a rough estimate is 1 / (1 + exp(- (-22.66 + 0.059 * bonus - 0.013 * mindSpace + 0.138 * paperArea))).