Research:Floron's Fabulous Mirror

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Resistance to FFM

Target skills defending against FFM

Observations with scrying 284, divining 265, channeling 337, misc 330:

area    self    success failure
257     288     17      13
345     319     12      18
510     700     7       17
405     405     6       24
446     446     15      25
344     344     15      15
237     319     25      5
226     328     25      7
307     342     11      19
298     312     19      11
322     383     13      11
273     452     17      13
320     468     16      14
323     332     13      18
337     453     12      18
307     564     13      17
190     205     23      3
500     500     2       30
350     500     8       14
261     320     19      11
261     315     24      6
26      26      29      1
185     205     25      5
169     171     30      0
0       0       30      0
74      74      30      0
121     79      30      0
148     79      30      0
200     79      24      6
230     79      19      11

R code:

scrying <- read.table("priests.txt", header=TRUE)
scrying$failureRate = scrying$failure / (scrying$success + scrying$failure)
scrying <- scrying[c("area","self","failureRate")]
cor(scrying, method="spearman")

Results:

                 area      self failureRate
area        1.0000000 0.8757667   0.9525710
self        0.8757667 1.0000000   0.8530574
failureRate 0.9525710 0.8530574   1.0000000

Additionally, it was tested on a priest advancing fa.ri.de.area, and the failure rate was increasing as expected with increase in that bonus alone. And then there were 8 fa.ri.de.area TMs during the scrying experiments. Unsup (talk) 08:11, 28 August 2019 (EDT)

Probability of a failure

Observations:

scrying divining channeling misc area success failure
284     265      337        330  257  17      13
284     265      337        330  345  12      18
284     265      337        330  510  7       17
284     265      337        330  405  6       24
284     265      337        330  446  15      25
284     265      337        330  344  15      15
284     265      337        330  237  25      5
284     265      337        330  226  25      7
284     265      337        330  307  11      19
284     265      337        330  298  19      11
284     265      337        330  322  13      11
284     265      337        330  273  23      17
284     265      337        330  320  16      14
284     265      337        330  323  13      18
284     265      337        330  337  12      18
284     265      337        330  307  13      17
284     265      337        330  190  23      3
284     265      337        330  500  2       30
284     265      337        330  350  8       14
284     265      337        330  261  19      11
284     265      337        330  261  24      6
284     265      337        330  26   29      1
284     265      337        330  185  25      5
284     265      337        330  169  30      0
284     265      337        330  0    30      0
284     265      337        330  74   30      0
284     265      337        330  121  30      0
284     265      337        330  148  30      0
284     265      337        330  200  24      6
284     265      337        330  230  19      11
284     265      337        330  318  12      8
276     265      337        324  318  5       3
276     265      337        324  323  26      24
284     265      337        330  323  20      25
247     265      337        302  323  19      21
312     273      337        334  299  65      45
283     273      337        314  299  46      54
# below are observations from the UU gym
247     265      337        302  273  15      15
284     265      337        330  323  17      23
247     265      337        302  323  14      26
247     265      337        302  226  29      11
258     265      337        311  226  28      12
276     265      337        324  226  30      10
284     265      337        315  226  29      11
287     268      346        334  226  27      13
284     273      337        334  226  29      11
247     265      337        302  257  15      15
247     265      337        302  328  16      24
258     265      337        311  328  14      26
276     265      337        324  328  18      22
284     265      337        315  350  22      18
284     265      337        315  369  13      27
258     265      337        311  369  17      23
284     265      337        330  369  17      23
287     268      346        334  369  15      25
284     265      337        330  334  21      19
247     265      337        302  334  21      19
284     265      337        330  289  25      15
258     265      337        311  289  18      22
258     265      337        311  317  18      22
312     265      337        330  345  43      57
312     265      337        330  301  57      43
312     265      337        330  302  58      42
324     272      346        341  302  13      7
283     265      337        311  302  9       11
283     265      337        311  298  20      20
283     265      337        311  299  33      27
312     265      337        330  299  43      27
312     265      337        330  307  37      23
312     265      337        330  26   97      3
283     265      337        311  26   96      4
312     265      337        330  54   99      1
283     265      337        311  54   98      2
312     265      337        330  81   48      2
312     265      337        330  500  0       3
312     279      337        330  299  60      40
283     279      337        311  299  48      52
312     279      337        330  81   99      1
283     279      337        311  81   100     0
312     288      337        330  103  99      1
312     288      337        330  323  35      25
312     288      337        330  325  54      46
283     288      337        311  325  41      59
312     288      337        330  257  61      29
312     288      337        330  345  53      47
312     300      337        330  270  68      32
283     300      337        311  270  58      42
283     300      337        311  103  57      3
283     300      337        311  257  62      38
312     309      337        334  257  8       2
312     308      337        330  510  27      73
283     308      337        311  510  13      87
304     308      337        324  510  9       51
312     308      337        330  279  64      36
312     317      337        330  317  53      47
283     317      337        311  317  59      41
312     338      337        330  270  53      47
283     338      337        311  270  56      44
312     338      337        330  345  11      19
312     338      337        330  289  56      44
312     338      337        330  334  57      43
283     338      337        311  289  29      21
283     338      337        311  334  54      46
312     338      337        330  500  16      44
304     337      337        315  334  42      58
323     338      337        330  345  49      51
293     338      337        311  345  28      32
323     338      337        330  325  66      44
293     338      337        311  325  45      55
323     338      337        330  270  65      35
293     338      337        311  270  52      48
323     338      337        330  299  66      34
329     338      337        330  270  58      42
299     338      337        311  270  65      35
338     338      337        330  270  70      30
306     338      337        311  270  70      30
338     338      337        330  510  44      56
338     338      337        330  317  67      33
338     338      337        330  103  98      2
338     338      337        330  400  46      54
306     338      337        311  400  40      60
338     338      337        330  299  19      11
339     338      337        330  299  40      35
346     338      337        330  270  71      29
350     338      337        330  289  71      29
350     338      337        330  230  84      16
318     338      337        311  230  67      33
350     338      337        330  299  61      39
355     338      337        330  270  69      31
355     338      337        330  345  59      41
372     338      337        330  270  85      15
338     338      337        311  270  74      31
372     338      337        330  289  77      23
338     338      337        311  289  31      14
372     338      337        330  510  32      68
373     338      337        330  334  40      35
373     338      337        330  345  81      39
340     338      337        311  345  31      14
340     338      337        311  346  33      27
377     338      337        330  400  50      50
342     338      337        311  400  47      53
389     338      337        330  270  82      18
389     338      337        330  299  70      30
396     338      337        330  299  75      25
400     338      337        330  270  83      17
362     338      337        311  270  75      25
400     338      337        330  510  44      56
276     337      337        296  101  98      2
400     338      337        330  279  96      14
400     338      337        330  207  100     0
362     338      337        311  207  100     0
330     338      337        330  207  88      12
304     337      337        315  207  81      19
276     337      337        296  207  73      27
317     338      337        328  207  82      18
400     338      337        330  289  78      22
400     338      337        330  302  75      25
276     337      337        296  152  100     0
400     338      337        330  307  71      29
400     338      337        330  398  54      46
400     338      337        330  453  53      47
400     338      337        330  357  60      40

# Waggoner's results
270     300      274        320  226  15      5
270     300      274        320  369  8       12
270     300      274        320  217  16      4
270     300      274        320  350  7       13
270     300      274        320  317  11      9

# Wukong's results
227     188      201        201  226  24      16
227     188      202        201  217  9       8
230     190      206        227  270  8       6
230     190      206        227  81   15      0
230     190      206        227  334  29      71

# Clare's results
217     173      202        235  226  5       5
217     173      202        235  217  3       7

# Ochrion's results
404     457      675        679  500  2       3

# Korin's results
282     254      347        330  299  8       18

# Quow's results (channeling bonus is secret, setting to 1000)
326     295      1000       508  377  8       12

R code:

scrying <- read.table("scrying.txt", header=TRUE)
scrying$failureRate <- scrying$failure / (scrying$success + scrying$failure)
scrying$weight <- scrying$failure + scrying$success
model <- glm(formula = failureRate ~ area + scrying + divining +
                 channeling + misc,
             family = binomial,
             data = scrying,
             weights = weight)
summary(model)
modelS <- glm(formula = failureRate ~ area + scrying - 1,
              family = quasibinomial,
              data = scrying,
              weights = weight)
coef(modelS)
summary(scrying$failureRate - (1 / (1 + exp(- (scrying$area / 100 - scrying$scrying / 90)))))

For these observations a fine (and likely, given the neat coefficients) approximation of expected scrying failure (resist success) rate is (1 / (1 + exp(- (target's area bonus / 100 - caster's scrying bonus / 90)))). Unsup (talk) 06:41, 27 September 2019 (EDT)