Research:Scribe
From Discworld MUD Wiki
Probability of successful scribing
Observations:
spell mindSpace paper paperL paperW bonus success failure IRV 5 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 60 29 ASB 5 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 140 104 ASB 5 "order slip" 6 4 326 47 0 BHEE 5 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 400 100 27 FHE 10 "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12 9 170 45 1 FHE 10 "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12 9 171 80 1 TMC 10 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 326 0 209 TMC 10 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 340 0 323 TMC 10 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 354 7 70 TMC 10 "order slip" 6 4 326 53 0 BOA 10 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 68 49 BOA 10 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 412 60 16 OTF 15 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 407 60 21 FCI 15 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 407 10 2 FCI 15 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 408 45 16 JPCT 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 132 77 JPCT 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 399 6 2 JPCT 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 400 234 96 JPCT 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 408 120 27 JPCT 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 412 227 54 JPCT 20 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 386 60 32 JPCT 20 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 386 20 13 JPCT 20 "official employment writ" 12 9 411 20 0 DTLD 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 2 411 60 15 WMS 25 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 382 160 118 WMS 25 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 90 62 WMS 25 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 396 100 42 WMS 25 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 408 140 28 WMS 25 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 409 26 8 WMS 25 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 411 210 63 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 340 0 200 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 354 30 191 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 368 120 172 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 382 120 74 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 386 102 81 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 396 80 35 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 408 40 7 WMS 25 "large cigarette paper" 4 1 409 280 66 WMS 25 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 386 103 42 WMS 25 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 354 6 51 WMS 25 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 382 75 51 WMS 25 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 326 0 64 WMS 25 "piece of writing paper" 2 2 340 0 128 WMS 25 "order slip" 6 4 340 0 60 WMS 25 "order slip" 6 4 354 2 28 WMS 25 "order slip" 6 4 368 10 20 WMS 25 "order slip" 6 4 382 13 17 WMS 25 "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12 9 171 34 8 WMS 25 "sheet of cheap writing paper" 12 9 326 34 0 HEB 30 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 220 154 GRG 40 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 386 80 58 CMS2 60 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 412 10 4 # Squishii's observations, approximate JPCT 20 "small cigarette paper" 2 1 273 0 200
R code:
scribing <- read.table("observations.txt", header=TRUE)
scribing$successRate <- scribing$success / (scribing$success + scribing$failure)
scribing$weight <- scribing$success + scribing$failure
scribing$paperArea <- scribing$paperL * scribing$paperW
model <- glm(formula = successRate ~ bonus + mindSpace +
paperArea,
family = binomial,
data = scribing,
weights = weight)
summary(model)
Based on that, a rough estimate is 1 / (1 + exp(- (-22.66 + 0.059 * bonus - 0.013 * mindSpace + 0.138 * paperArea))).
